I’m writing this blind; that is, I have no idea how the elections of 2016 turned out because they haven’t happened yet. I don’t know if Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be heading the ship of state for the next four years. It’s an odd thing to contemplate. So, rather than speculate on what may have happened, I will simply admit that I have been very wrong about the effects on gun ownership a Barack Obama presidency would create. Instead, I’ll just report some current facts, because I think they tell the story regardless of who wins.
I just looked at the FBI’s background-check statistics for gun sales in October 2016, the latest month for which data was available (at this time). Those numbers showed that more than 2,333,539 gun-related checks processed through NICS, the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, in October. That’s up more than 350,000 checks over the previous October, itself a record. It’s also the 18th month in a row to that firearms sales checks set a record.
Moreover, with November and December yet to be recorded, the year of 2016 has already seen 22,206,233 NICS checks — the second-highest year for checks in the history of NICS. Only 2015 had more.
The FBI statement on the sales figures said, “These statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.”
Still, NICS checks are the best indicators for gun sales we have, in part because many states do not require NICS checks for sales between private parties. Nobody I know of has good data about what private-sale volume is, the comments of some politicians and so-called researchers notwithstanding. My guess is that private sales are about 10% of NICS volume.
No matter. What the numbers indisputably prove is that President Obama’s positions on gun control are driving sales. The overlay between the years of his administration and the steady uptick of gun sales over the last eight years is remarkable. He is said to be the country’s “greatest gun salesman” ever. Donald Trump, if he wins, cannot approach Obama’s success in selling firearms.
Hillary Clinton, however, may eclipse even Obama’s successes. Clinton’s own campaign thinks she “has been more forceful on guns/gun lobby than any other person who ever seriously ran for president,” according to documents released by Wikileaks. Also, she has said that the Supreme Court was “wrong on the Second Amendment,” referencing the Heller decision.
When Obama won in 2008, I was sure he would attempt to suppress gun rights, thus gun sales would tank. I will now flip-flop faster than a John Kerry war statement and say that if Hillary Clinton wins on Election Day, the gun-sales numbers for November 2016 will spike to all-time highs. By the time you read this, we’ll know if I got it right this time.
